UK Spectator: "The Russian army is seriously running out of momentum"
"As the Russian invasion enters its fourth week it is clear that its forces are running out of momentum, although they continue to make limited territorial gains in the south and east of Ukraine."
“Having been denied a quick victory over Ukraine itself, Putin now needs to force the Ukrainian government to accept a ceasefire agreement that largely freezes the frontlines and allows him to claim a victory domestically.” But this could be hard to accomplish…
Source: The Russian army is seriously running out of momentum | Spectator
The photo above starkly demonstrates the fact that things are not going Russia’s way, in its invasion of (or, in Russian terms, “special military operation” in) Ukraine. The war is definitely not over, and things could change; but as of this point, Russians (possibly excluding, but maybe including, Russian President Vladimir Putin) have to be asking themselves what they’ve themselves gotten into! As this Spectator article points out,
As the Russian invasion enters its fourth week it is clear that its forces are running out of momentum, although they continue to make limited territorial gains in the south and east of Ukraine. Having been denied a quick victory over Ukraine itself, Putin now needs to force the Ukrainian government to accept a ceasefire agreement that largely freezes the frontlines and allows him to claim a victory domestically...
In return for its modest territorial gains, some of which are now in danger of being reversed, the Russian military has suffered devastating losses... the US military believes that over 10 per cent of the roughly 190,000 troops which Russia has committed to the invasion are no longer available to them. Visually confirmed vehicle and heavy weapon losses are now over 1,500, including over 240 main battle tanks, 460 armoured fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, 34 helicopters, 35 surface-to-air missile systems and 500 trucks and other soft-skinned vehicles...
[Due to mobilizing literally hundreds of thousands of reservists and volunteers,] Ukraine has an ever-increasing advantage over the Russian invasion forces in sheer numbers, but committing these newly mobilised forces to operations en masse will result in extremely heavy casualties and limited effectiveness due to lack of training and experience. But the longer this war continues, the worse position Russian forces will find themselves in and the larger and more capable the Ukrainian reserve and volunteer forces will become.
If Ukraine can sustain the current pace of combat without over-committing its inexperienced new forces, it can deny the overstretched Russian forces an opportunity to consolidate their current positions and may be able to force them to retreat in other areas as their supply lines and staging areas become indefensible. However, if Russia manages to force a ceasefire that leaves its forces in place, then it is likely to use that pause to reinforce its front lines, get logistics support to its beleaguered units and renew its ability to sustain offensive momentum.
Russia appears to have forgotten something it should have known, did know in fact: namely that Ukraine is not a small country – it is the second-largest country by area in Europe after Russia itself – and it has a population of around 43 million, compared to Russia’s 145.5 (note: Russia has less than half the population of the United States, something I think a lot of people don’t realize... I had not, myself, until recently), the vast majority of whom are deeply committed to defending their homeland.
43 million is significantly less than 145.5 million, of course (and it’s unclear whether that is before or after the 3 million refugees evacuated); but Russia also has a much larger area to defend. The more it is seen, by the world, as getting its butt kicked, the more important that defense will become. So it can’t afford to commit all of its military forces to Ukraine. Although U.S. intelligence estimates suggest that it has, indeed, committed a staggering 75% of its total ground forces... and it is still not clearly winning.
If it wasn’t so heartbreaking, for the human and cultural losses, and dangerous, with Russia’s nuclear capability, this would be an intellectually fascinating conflict to observe! And even as it is – and even given that, as this article points out, “Ukrainian losses are much less clear, but are undoubtedly much higher than many believe, since Ukraine has been highly effective in dominating the information space” – it is nonetheless apparent that Ukraine has opened up a family-sized can of whoop-@$$ on its invaders.
It could still go either way; but it is clearly not going Russia’s way, at the moment!
But whatever happens, this war is a human tragedy – the largest humanitarian disaster to strike Europe since the Second World War – and also, given the horrific destruction rained down upon Ukrainian cities, a historical and cultural tragedy. And while world sympathy (and my own, I must confess) tends toward Ukraine, there are Russian soldiers dying, and Russian families losing their sons, fathers, brother, in an elective war that should never have been launched in the first place.
Praying for peace.